Just gonna dive right in.

Starting with the monthly…

spy monthly 7/9

Here we can see that based on the all the time low dip, we’re just approaching the 2.0 fib extension. Here, we may see some resistance, but the 1.618 was a lot bigger lip to get over. Channels plotted, showing support and resistance levels. The 2.618 sits high in the 303s. Currently printing an inside month.

Next up, the weekly…

spy weekly 7/9

The weekly looks like an Adam & Eve double bottom… resembling the single bottom for the Adam and double for the Even, to recover and break through the monthly 1.618 and short term downtrend resistance. After the retest of the former resistance, SPY ran hard to the weekly 1.618, where it consolidated to retest that level repeatedly before continuing higher.

The case could be made that the weekly here resembles a rising wedge, as both the RSI and MACD are showing negative divergences vs price action. Further, a bearish MACD crossover took place this week. The week closed with an inside hammer to hold the sharp short term uptrend, or potential rising wedge demand.

Next is the daily…

First lets analyze the bearish case…

spy daily 7/9 bear

The bearish case can be made in that the daily does resemble the look of a rising wedge, with negative divergences to accompany the pattern. While the first fib 1.618 isn’t in yet, the shorter term range has completed the 1.618 extension. However, with the reclaim of the 50d, SPY holding the RSI @ 50,and the MACD holding above 0, I think we see rotation here to the upside.

Moving forward, this rising wedge idea could completely play out, but based on the short term I like the longer term daily 1.618 to complete. It’s possible to complete the 1.618 touch while still remaining within the range of the rising wedge pattern. Once this occurs, it is possible that the rising wedge could break to the downside.

The bullish case…

spy daily 7/9 bull 1

On the bullish side, this resembles a retested ascending triangle that only just broke out. Obviously the retest level is key, but as is the weekly 1.618 support.

Additionally… looks a lot like a .50 bull flag to me.

spy daily 7/9 bull 2

Now lets combine both the bullish and bearish ideas together as I posted on twitter…


Here, both the bearish and bullish points are established. Tricky point here in the market… but my gut is telling me up. I like the potential bull flag play into channel resistance, RSI & MACD divergence resistance, and the daily 2.618.

In Depth $SPY Technical Analysis

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